World

Asia-Pacific Sees Little Shift in US Policy After Midterms

By Samantha Ho

Across the Asia‑Pacific, governments and businesses are watching the U.S. midterm elections closely, hoping for changes in President Donald Trump’s approach to the war on Iran, trade and tariffs. Analysts say that even if the Democrats take control of the House and possibly the Senate, the impact on U.S. policy is likely to be limited.

The war on Iran has hit the region hard. Before the conflict began in January, the Asia‑Pacific imported most of the Gulf oil and gas that passed through the Strait of Hormuz. When Iran closed the chokepoint in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, many countries faced shortages. The Philippines, which imports more than 90 % of its crude oil from the Gulf, has been under a national energy emergency since March. Fuel costs have drained the foreign‑exchange reserves of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and East Timor, according to the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS)‑Yusof Ishak Institute. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have spent heavily on fuel subsidies.

Public opinion in the region remains strongly opposed to the war. Steven Okun, chief executive of APAC Advisors, told Al Jazeera that a Democratic‑controlled Congress is unlikely to force Trump to end the eight‑month conflict. He said that while the war would be investigated and oversight hearings would occur, the overall impact of the conflict would not change. Under the U.S. Constitution, Congress can declare war, but Trump has claimed the attacks on Iran were in self‑defence and has ignored congressional resolutions directing him to withdraw U.S. forces. If a Democrat‑controlled Congress passes legislation restricting military operations or cutting funding, Trump can veto it, and overriding a veto would require a two‑thirds majority that Democrats are unlikely to achieve.

On trade and tariffs, analysts see little room for Congress to alter Trump’s approach. Last year Trump imposed “reciprocal” tariffs of 10 % to 50 % on about 90 countries to shrink the U.S. trade deficit. Asia was hit hardest, with Cambodia facing a 49 % tariff and Laos 48 %. After the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February, the administration imposed new tariffs of 10 % and 12.5 % on goods from 60 trading partners, accusing them of using forced labour. The list includes China, Japan, South Korea and seven Southeast Asian nations. Okun said that the new Congress would not change trade policy: “Tariffs don’t change. The war doesn’t change.”

Some analysts note a narrow opening. Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at ISEAS, argued that a strong rebuke of Trumpism could embolden a pro‑free‑trade wing of the Republican Party, offering a glimmer of hope for Southeast Asian exporters. He also said a Democratic‑controlled Congress could push for carve‑outs that would give the region a modicum of relief, but deeper shifts would have to wait for the 2028 election.

Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the region’s wish list extends beyond trade to security. He said Asia would like more stability in trade and tariff policy, clearer U.S. security guarantees, a more visible U.S. presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and greater congressional willingness to stand up to Trump on issues important to companies in Asia.

On U.S.–China ties, analysts expect some change. Okun said the next Congress will pass tougher restrictions on China, including the Remote Access Security Act, the Chip Security Act and the MATCH Act, which would align allies’ controls on chip‑making equipment with Washington’s. He noted that the president is currently the least restrictive on China, as Trump has met President Xi Jinping twice this year and has held off approving a $14 bn arms package for Taiwan.

James Guild, an assistant professor at the Indonesian International Islamic University, warned that a lame‑duck Trump could turn more forcefully to foreign policy. He said the Democrats have a poor record of holding Trump accountable and that it will be unclear whether they will rise to the occasion this time.