World
India Expands Chenab Water Projects Amid Indus Treaty Suspension
Since April 2025, when India unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), it has pursued a strategy that focuses on the Chenab River. The Indian government has built a network of storage, regulation, and diversion infrastructure on the Chenab, with hydroelectric capacity rising from 3,263 MW to 7,620.5 MW and a financial outlay of about ₹414.04 billion. Five megaprojects—Sawalkot (1,856 MW), Kirthai I & II (1,320 MW), Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Ratle (850 MW), and Bursar Storage (800 MW)—are part of this plan, along with local diversions. The infrastructure push began in May 2025 with the Uri‑II tender (240 MW) and continued with Dulhasti‑II (260 MW) in June 2025. July 2025 saw a tender for sediment removal from the Salal Dam Reservoir and the Sawalkot project under international competitive bidding. In March 2026, civil contracts were awarded for Uri‑I stage II and Dulhasti stage‑II, and the Chenab‑Beas Link Tunnel Project (Link‑3) was officially tendered. These projects together provide a potential diversion and storage capacity of roughly 7.287 MAF.
The Chenab‑Beas Link Project, with a budget of ₹23.52 billion, proposes to transfer water from the Chandra River, a major Chenab tributary, through an 8.7‑km tunnel into the Beas basin and then via a 113‑km canal network to eastern Indian states. The diversion of 1.9 MAF annually from the Chenab basin raises questions about compliance with Article III of the IWT.
The Chenab irrigates agricultural lands in more than 11 districts of central Punjab, the country’s food basket. These districts account for about 22–25 % of Pakistan’s national food grain output. Control of water flows during October‑December or May‑July could affect seasonal yields and potentially inflict a $9 bn to $11 bn blow to Pakistan’s economy. Pakistan would need to spend billions of foreign exchange reserves on food imports, lose $3.3 bn to $4 bn in rice export revenue, and face a multibillion‑dollar trade deficit. The disruption would also threaten the livelihoods of millions of farming households and compromise national food security.
Pakistan has responded mainly through international legal and diplomatic channels, but domestic preparedness is limited. The country lacks modern water‑storage infrastructure, optimized canal lining, crop‑switching strategies, and real‑time early warning systems. Analysts suggest that Pakistan should declare a national water emergency, educate vulnerable communities in the 11 districts, expedite dam construction, and modernize irrigation to counter the threat.
The article was published in Dawn on November 1, 2026 by a strategic analyst of international security. The views expressed are his own.