Politics

ANC Faces Sharp Decline in Local Election Support Amid Service Delivery Grievances

By Rachel Savage

The African National Congress is poised for a challenging outcome in South Africa’s local elections held on Wednesday, as voters express deep frustration over water shortages, power cuts and deteriorating infrastructure. The ANC, which brought Nelson Mandela to power in 1994 as the country’s first black president, is still expected to remain the largest party, but polls indicate it will secure less than a third of the vote, down from 45.6% in the 2021 municipal elections and 40.2% in the 2024 national elections. Vote fragmentation could allow the ANC to lead many city coalition governments while losing control of others. Existing unstable coalitions are common across South Africa’s 257 municipalities, and analysts cite their high turnover as a major factor in poor service delivery. Johannesburg, a city of 4.8 million people that has faced water shortages for more than a week, has had 10 mayors in as many years. The neighbouring municipality of Ekurhuleni has had three mayors since 2021, and in Tshwane, which includes the capital Pretoria, the mayoralty has rotated between parties four times since 2020. In October, more than 800 people contracted a gastrointestinal illness from contaminated water in Bronkhorstspruit, east Tshwane. Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane are in Gauteng, South Africa’s most populous and densely populated province and its economic engine. The centre‑right, white‑led Democratic Alliance is leading the polls in all three metros but has not polled above 40%. The ANC’s national leadership is open to working with the DA in Gauteng, mirroring the national coalition where the two parties are the largest, but local ANC leaders reportedly oppose a DA tie‑up. Currently, the ANC governs with a combination of the far‑left Economic Freedom Fighters and the populist Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA across the province’s three metros. In Johannesburg, the DA’s Helen Zille has led a spirited campaign, with viral stunts including the 75‑year‑old snorkelling in a pothole and kayaking along a flooded street. However, the former Cape Town mayor is still viewed with suspicion by many, especially black voters, due to controversial past comments that appear to excuse colonialism. Some voters also cite soaring housing costs in Cape Town, which has been run by the DA since 2006, as a reason not to vote for Zille. The former Johannesburg DA mayor Herman Mashaba, who leads ActionSA, polling around 10%, has ruled out working with Zille in Johannesburg and has called Zille a “racist”, an allegation she has denied. The ANC has three possible mayoral candidates for the city amid factional infighting. In eThekwini metro, which contains the port city of Durban, the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party of former ANC president Jacob Zuma is polling above 40%. The 84‑year‑old Zuma, who has weathered and denied numerous corruption allegations, is expected to capture many of his former party’s votes, which won 42% in eThekwini in 2021 and is now polling around 10%. The DA looks set to retain its majority in Cape Town, although probably with less than the 58% of the vote it won in 2021, as unaffordable housing turns more voters against the party. South Africa’s electoral commission will have a week to announce the final results of Wednesday’s vote, which chooses councillors and parties, with mayors not directly elected. Parties will then have two weeks from the announcement to form councils and elect mayors.