World

US Prepares for Possible Iran Strikes While Diplomatic Outreach Continues

By Nils Adler

Washington and Tehran have sent mixed signals over the past week about whether the eight‑month conflict will return to full‑scale strikes or move toward a peace deal. On Thursday, Admiral Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, briefed President Donald Trump on options for renewed attacks on Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal. The U.S. and Israel have also drawn up joint plans to strike Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, the New York Times reported. On the same day, The Washington Post reported that Vice President J.D. Vance offered to meet Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in person to negotiate an end to the war.

Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on Friday for talks coordinated with the U.S., a Reuters official said. The U.S. has increased air defences and munitions in the region and moved some troops away from bases vulnerable to Iranian retaliation. Ten U.S. military cargo planes landed at Israel’s Ovda and Nevatim air bases in the Negev region on Thursday, with more sent to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Kan reported. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who said he had been briefed on the plans, called them “insane” and warned of a devastating escalation.

Vance’s letter, delivered to Rezaei through Qatari mediators on Sunday, proposed direct talks led by Vance, with Iran’s nuclear programme on the table from the start, the New York Times said, in an attempt to prevent a renewal of strikes. An Iran analyst, Rouzbeh Parsi, described Vance as the “voice of reason” in the Trump administration, noting that his signals have been the least volatile. Parsi said Vance’s outreach may not be credible until he can deliver something on his own.

Nader Hashemi, a professor of Middle East politics at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera that Rezaei is one voice among many and that decisions are made collectively inside the Islamic Republic. Wolfgang Pusztai, a security and defence analyst, said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) currently calls the shots in Iran. He noted that the IRGC’s approval is necessary for any agreement and that Rezaei’s statements reflect the IRGC leadership’s position.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said progress depends on Iran’s seven conditions, including lifting sanctions, ending the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, guarantees to end U.S.–Israeli strikes, and unfreezing Iranian assets. He added that the “carrot‑and‑stick approach has no effect on Iran”, according to the semi‑official Tasnim news agency.

Vance told Fox News on Thursday that Trump would “never” let the conflict become “a forever war”. Andreas Krieg, an associate professor of security studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that Vance’s offer of direct talks suggests Americans have second thoughts and are less ready to strike than they publicly indicate. He warned that Cooper, whom he called “quite hawkish”, could give Trump false confidence that a military solution exists.

Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that the White House may be sending signals to coerce Tehran but that the better interpretation is that the United States is preparing for substantial attacks soon. He does not expect Washington to accept an unfavorable deal Tehran is offering without another round of attacks.

Pusztai said Trump’s main focus is now the midterms, making it unlikely he will order another large‑scale attack on Iran before the elections. He added that starting in mid‑to‑late November there could be a major wave of attacks aimed at advancing the American agenda, with the goal of weakening the IRGC enough to push it toward a deal on U.S. terms.

Hashemi noted that Iran was attacked by Israel or the U.S. while talks were underway in 2025 and 2026, describing the pattern as “talking diplomacy while preparing for war”. He cited past incidents: on June 13, 2025, Israel launched major strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites two days before a sixth round of U.S.–Iran talks in Oman; the U.S. joined on June 22, bombing Iran’s Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear sites. In 2026, the U.S. and Israel attacked on February 28, two days after talks in Geneva that mediator Oman said had made “significant progress”.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Al Jazeera in September that Iran no longer trusts negotiations with Washington because attacks had come during previous rounds of talks. Hashemi suspects the same pattern is repeating itself, with the U.S. preparing a massive bombing campaign in Iran.

Krieg said the main issue is sequencing and the lack of trust on the Iranian side that the Americans will follow through with their commitments. Tehran wants sanctions and the U.S. naval blockade lifted quickly, fearing a slow process gives Trump room to backtrack. Some IRGC hardliners do not see war as a bad thing if it tightens their grip on the Hormuz Strait, and the Iranians have been preparing for this war for the last three weeks.

Krieg expects nothing to happen until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, after which the likelihood of war will increase exponentially. He said any new escalation would be worse than in February and March, with Iran ready to strike critical infrastructure in Gulf countries, posing an unprecedented threat to the Gulf.