Climate & Environment

Brazil’s Amazon Deforestation Hits Record Low as Presidential Run‑Off Looms

By Jonathan Watts

Brazilian government data shows that Amazon deforestation fell to its lowest level on record, with forest clearance dropping 41.8% over the past year to 3,335 square kilometres. This is the lowest figure since measurements began in 1988 and beats the previous record low by 1,236 square kilometres, an area the size of Rio de Janeiro. Since 2022, the year before President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office, the deforestation rate has slowed 71.2%, according to the National Institute for Space Research. The slowdown is attributed to stronger enforcement measures and state investments in environmental agencies.

In 2026, the states with the highest deforestation rates were Pará (33.9% of all Amazon deforestation), Mato Grosso (25.5%) and Amazonas (15.7%). All three states saw reductions of more than 45% compared with the previous year. Roraima, a Bolsonaro stronghold, was the only state where deforestation increased, up 0.4%.

Outside the Amazon, the Cerrado savannah biome recorded its lowest annual deforestation since 2001, at 5,516 square kilometres. Over the past four years, Cerrado deforestation has fallen 48.4%.

The data come ahead of the presidential election run‑off on 25 October between incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s first‑round vote share was lower than expected, but he has a record of reducing Amazon deforestation, poverty and food insecurity. Flávio Bolsonaro, who has courted support from landowners and extractivist interests, has a manifesto that ignores the climate crisis.

Conservationists note the stark contrast between the two candidates. Lula defends the Amazon as a sovereign asset for Brazil, Indigenous peoples and global climate stability, while the Bolsonaro family maintains close ties to the United States. If the Bolsonaros win, Brazil’s trade priorities, especially for critical minerals, are expected to shift from China and Europe toward the US.

Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, said the new deforestation figures demonstrate that ending forest destruction in Brazil is possible, but the outcome depends on the election result. He added, “The figure makes it clear that putting an end to forest destruction in Brazil is entirely possible. However, everything depends on the election result. The country will decide whether we move toward the end of deforestation or toward the end of the forest.”