Climate & Environment

UNICEF Warns 347 Million Children Face Extreme Weather from 2026‑27 El Niño

By Today News Hours Editorial Desk

UNICEF says that the 2026‑2027 El Niño, a climate pattern that heats parts of the Pacific Ocean and disrupts global weather, is expected to be one of the strongest on record. The pattern is projected to bring unusually wet and dry conditions that could raise the likelihood of extreme weather events, including heavy flooding and severe droughts, threatening the lives, health and education of children in nearly 100 countries and territories.

UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell explained, “For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages, and disease outbreaks. Children are also at risk of schools closing, while families could experience added financial hardship.” She added that with more than 347 million children living in areas expected to experience drier or wetter conditions because of El Niño, action is needed now to protect communities and children.

Key facts - More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories are expected to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026, raising the risk of extreme floods and droughts. - The largest numbers of children likely to be affected are in Asia and the Pacific (190 million), followed by East and Southern Africa (41 million), Latin America and the Caribbean (41 million), Europe and Central Asia (22 million), Middle East and Northern Africa (20 million), and West and Central Africa (20 million). - Children in Colombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines are among those expected to experience drier conditions linked to El Niño, which could lead to agricultural drought, water scarcity, displacement and worsening acute malnutrition. - Children in the Greater Horn of Africa – especially in Somalia – will face wetter-than-normal conditions that could trigger riverine and flash flooding, spread water‑borne diseases and disrupt schooling. - In crisis and conflict‑affected countries such as Afghanistan or Chad, El Niño can directly threaten survival, worsening hunger and malnutrition where conflict, displacement and limited access to essential services already leave children highly vulnerable. - As extreme weather events become more widespread, children could face increased risks of family separation, violence, exploitation and child marriage. During a 2022 Horn of Africa drought, child marriage increased by an average of 119 percent in drought‑affected areas of Ethiopia. - Globally, 1.1 billion children – nearly half of the world’s children – are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate‑related hazards such as drought, extreme heat or floods, with El Niño expected to make these shocks even more severe. - Weather‑related disasters have already driven more than 20,000 child displacements every day between 2016 and 2023. The 2026‑2027 El Niño could further increase sudden displacement as extreme weather events force families from their homes. - In 2025, climate‑related events interrupted learning for an estimated 171 million students worldwide, a figure that could rise as El Niño fuels more severe droughts and floods, leading to school closures, disrupted attendance and increased risks of children dropping out. - Every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction and prevention can save up to US$15 in recovery costs, yet less than 1 percent of humanitarian funding currently goes to anticipatory action. With forecasts providing months of warning, UNICEF urges governments, donors and partners to act before needs escalated by investing early, strengthening climate‑resilient systems, protecting essential services for children and ensuring humanitarian access to affected communities.

The figures are based on a 70 percent probability of unusual precipitation conditions occurring between October and December 2026, derived from the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts’ seasonal forecast and WorldPop child population data. The estimates identify areas where precipitation anomalies are expected to be most intense, but do not represent impact estimates. The forecast is produced at a spatial resolution of approximately 110 kilometres and is updated as new information becomes available.

Media contacts Additional resources About UNICEF UNICEF, the United Nations agency for children, works to protect the rights of every child, everywhere, especially the most disadvantaged children and in the toughest places to reach. Across more than 190 countries and territories, we do whatever it takes to help children survive, thrive and fulfil their potential. Follow UNICEF on X, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube