Sports
Data Shows Why MLS Clubs Are Turning Their Attention to South Africa's PSL
South Africa's Bafana Bafana squad for the 2026 World Cup was largely made up of players from the country's domestic league, particularly champions Orlando Pirates and runners-up Mamelodi Sundowns. Major League Soccer was the only other league with multiple representatives in the squad, prompting scrutiny of why MLS clubs are showing interest in South Africa's Premier Soccer League (PSL) and whether data supports that interest.
As of May 2026, the United States was the most common destination for South African players moving abroad, according to the CIES Atlas of Migration. The total number of such transfers stood at six, a relatively small figure.
Analysis using SkillCorner's tracking data, including a five-part Physicality Matrix covering 41 global leagues and an Expected Possession Value (EPV) model, provides evidence for this emerging pathway between South Africa and MLS. This is not yet an established recruitment channel, but an early-stage connection made more visible through data that allows cross-league comparisons.
The authors of the analysis anticipate that MLS representation among South African internationals will grow by 2030, along with increased diversity in the national squad. These are stated as expectations rather than confirmed trends. They are based on the fact that the U.S. is already the top destination for South African players and that the PSL's physical profile closely resembles MLS's within the 41-league sample.
SkillCorner's Physicality Matrix breaks down athletic performance into five branches: Coverage, Agility, Speed, Explosiveness, and Intensity. Each metric is converted into a Z-score relative to the 41-league sample, then graded on a fixed scale: S (above +1.5σ), A (above +0.5σ), B (within ±0.5σ), C (below −0.5σ), and D (below −1.5σ). No metric is counted in more than one branch, and the overall Physical Score averages all five branches equally, scaled so that 50 represents the average across leagues.
The Premier League leads the rankings with a Physical Score of 90.2, ahead of Ligue 1 at 73.7. The PSL ranks 11th overall at 61.3, narrowly ahead of MLS in 13th place at 61.1. However, the composite scores mask distinct differences: the PSL earns an S grade in Explosiveness, A grades in Speed and Intensity, B in Agility, and C in Coverage—indicating a league built around short, sharp actions rather than sustained running.
The PSL is one of only three leagues in the sample to achieve an S-tier Explosiveness rating, driven by its top ranking in Time to High-Speed Running (HSR) and Explosive Accelerations to Sprint among non-European leagues. It also ranks first in High Accelerations and Decelerations, reflecting frequent changes in speed and direction rather than total distance covered. These qualities are seen as valuable in one-on-one duels and moments requiring quick separation near the penalty area.
While the PSL and MLS have similar overall Physical Scores, their athletic profiles differ. MLS ranks third in Speed, behind Ligue 1 and the Premier League, suggesting a league built more around sustained pace. The PSL's explosiveness and intensity could complement, rather than duplicate, MLS's existing athletic strengths—an appealing prospect for clubs seeking a different physical profile at relatively low cost.
The case of Chicago Fire defender Mbekezeli Mbokazi illustrates this dynamic. Born in 2005, Mbokazi joined Chicago Fire from Orlando Pirates in December 2025 and earned an MLS All-Star selection before the World Cup break, though injury prevented him from playing. SkillCorner's EPV model highlights his ball-playing ability, including forward-thinking passing.
Chicago Fire director of football and head coach Gregg Berhalter said Mbokazi stood out for his composure and game-reading ability, not just his physical tools. Berhalter also praised fellow signing Puso Dithejane for his technical skill and tactical fit within the club's style of play.
Among the top five centre-backs globally for Overall EPV Per 30 TIP, three—including Mbokazi—were eligible for MLS's Under-22 Initiative. Another South African, Ntandoyenkosi Mabaso, also ranks in the top 5% for this metric, though the analysis notes he is more effective in peak performance moments, while Mbokazi shows greater consistency across matches.
Berhalter also credited the availability of reliable player data in South Africa—more extensive than in much of Sub-Saharan Africa—for giving MLS clubs greater confidence in evaluating talent remotely. He said he expects more South African players to move to MLS as more clubs become comfortable with the pathway.
While the current scale of the PSL-to-MLS pipeline remains small—just six transfers recorded by May 2026—tracking data offers a clearer picture of the league's distinct athletic identity. Its explosive, high-intensity style sets it apart from MLS's more speed-focused approach, and cases like Mbokazi's demonstrate how the two leagues might complement each other in future recruitment. Whether this leads to a broader shift, as some analysts expect by 2030, will depend on future transfers and squad decisions—not on data alone.