World

Iran Weighs Impact of U.S. Vice President’s Shift Away From Iran Negotiations

By Maziar Motamedi

Iranian officials are assessing the implications of Vice President J.D. Vance’s reassignment from the Iran portfolio to domestic matters, a move that could heighten the risk of conflict between the United States and Iran. Vance had been the U.S. chief negotiator in talks with Iran, but President Donald Trump directed him to focus on alleged Democratic corruption, according to a post on Truth Social on Thursday. Trump also stated that a deal with Iran was no longer a priority for the administration.

Tehran views Vance as one of the more pragmatic figures in the Trump administration, especially after the U.S. and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran on February 28. Nasser Hadian, a professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, said that Trump’s reassignment of Vance signaled a confrontation with Democrats following their midterm election victories. The move may also serve Israel, which reportedly wants Trump to launch new strikes against Iran after Vance blamed the Republicans’ midterm defeat on the war.

Hadian added that the reassignment sends a message to Iran that reaching a deal is not a priority and that the person known for a softer stance on Iran has been diverted to other issues. Vance had previously supported a negotiated resolution to the war, citing rising economic costs for U.S. citizens and public opposition to the conflict. He was backed by Trump envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff when he negotiated a memorandum of understanding with Iran in June, which briefly paused the war and resumed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Senator Rubio has called Iranian demands for ending the war “insane” but also acknowledged the cost of an all‑out war, seeking to win through economic pressure and isolation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, facing an impeachment vote over the war, and Central Command chief Brad Cooper reportedly favor renewed military action against Iran.

Vance wrote a letter to Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei in late October as regional mediators intensified efforts to bridge gaps. Rezaei initially described the tone of the letter as positive, but later dismissed claims of progress and a possible direct meeting with Vance as “fake news about imaginary talks.” He posted on X: “You lost the war and the election. Vance has conceded, Rubio is heading for the exit, Hegseth is about to be fired, and the CENTCOM commander is now a podcaster!”

Mediated contacts continue, but no breakthrough is expected. Tehran demands seven conditions and a clear sequence of concessions to end the war, which the U.S. finds unacceptable. Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies, noted that Trump has highlighted alleged rifts within the Iranian negotiating team and that Iranian authorities question the reliability of any new agreement with Washington. He asked Al Jazeera, “Even if you can imagine Mr. Rezaei sitting down with Mr. Vance and reaching a deal, what guarantee is there that Trump will enforce it?”

The mistrust between the two sides complicates prospects for a deal, Sedghian added. He said the ongoing U.S. siege and harsh sanctions will continue, potentially costing Iran more than a shorter military conflict. “The blockade and disruptions are significantly raising the costs for Iranian people. The current state of no war and no negotiated resolution is very dangerous,” he said.

Iranian reformist newspaper Shargh argued that Vance’s role concerning Iran is unresolved rather than terminated, but also warned that the conflict could further intensify. Conservative daily Farhikhtegan disputed the portrayal of Vance as genuinely anti‑war, arguing that diplomacy, military force, and economic pressure ultimately serve a common U.S. objective to coerce Iran into accepting its conditions.

For now, the two sides continue to contest control of the Strait of Hormuz, with retaliatory attacks on shipping and military installations. On Friday and Saturday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular army separately reported several new incidents of vessels hitting naval mines or being struck by projectiles after attempting “unauthorised” routes in the critical waterway. The latest weekly report by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations on Friday recorded eight incidents in and around the strait, mostly in the southern route near Oman. UKMTO also recorded 139 outbound and 169 inbound transits through the strait during the week, about 65 percent below pre‑conflict levels.

Hadian believes Iranian decision‑makers will not tolerate the current situation indefinitely. “The authorities will either go after their warships, their vessels, or their military bases,” he said. “The stronger the blockade becomes, including through maritime pressure and disruptions for overland borders and air travel, war becomes more probable.”

However, Trump’s sidelining of Vance on the Iran issue will not radically alter the current situation, Hadian said, since Washington believes its tactic of economic pressure on Tehran can force concessions. “The U.S. would have done this with or without Vance, and I believe it will continue to do this,” he said.