Politics

Democrats Project Record House Majority in 2026 Midterms

By Aaron Blake

The 2026 midterm elections have been very favorable for Democrats across the board, and their House majority is trending toward historic levels. CNN projects that Democrats have won more than 250 House seats, with a net gain of around 40 seats, and they could reach or exceed 260 seats once all results are finalized. That would give them an 85‑seat majority, the largest Democratic majority since the early 1990s. After flipping more seats on Thursday afternoon, Democrats hold leads in 259 districts. If those margins hold, Republicans would end up with 174 seats, with two Louisiana races headed to runoffs. Democrats lead by around a point or less in six districts: South Carolina’s 1st, Colorado’s 4th, Florida’s 9th, Minnesota’s 1st, North Carolina’s 5th and Tennessee’s 4th. If Democrats reach 260 seats, it would be their biggest House majority since 1991‑93, when they had 267 seats. They had 258 seats in the following Congress and 257 after Barack Obama’s 2008 win. By winning more than 250 seats, Democrats’ House majority is already larger than any Republican House majority since the Great Depression; the GOP’s high watermark since then was 247 seats after the 2014 election. A 260‑seat majority would mean Democrats captured 60% of the available House seats, compared with 54% to 56% of the Senate depending on the final Alaska and Mississippi races. Democrats are expected to gain around 50 seats by the time all races are settled. If they win the 259 seats where they are currently ahead, it would be a net gain of 44 seats, the third‑largest gain in the past half‑century after Republicans gained 63 seats in 2010 and 54 seats in 1994. It would also surpass Democrats’ biggest recent midterms: 41 seats in 2018 and 31 seats in 2006. The number of seats flipped may be more significant than past gains because the 2026 election began with a nearly even split: Republicans 220 seats to Democrats 215. Democrats also faced Republican redistricting that aimed to give Republicans more conservative territory, which did not succeed. In terms of the popular vote, Democrats currently lead by about 12 percentage points—a margin that could grow as more votes are reported, especially from western Democratic‑leaning states. Although California’s top‑two primary system skews the data by creating some Republican‑vs‑Republican and Democrat‑vs‑Democrat races, the overall margin remains a strong indicator. This will be only the second time since 1982 that a party won the House popular vote by double digits, the first being Obama’s 2008 election with an 11‑point Democratic margin, according to Brookings Institution data. The last time either party won the House popular vote by at least 13 points was in the post‑Watergate 1976 election.