Business & Finance

Kioxia’s Soft Forecast Sends Micron, Western Digital, and SanDisk Lower

By David Moadel

Kioxia Holdings’ cautious outlook for its December quarter has pulled memory stocks lower, turning an overnight gain in Micron Technology into a loss. Micron shares are trading at $853.34, down 4% today, and have fallen 20% over the past month despite record results. On September 30, the company reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $54.23 billion, up 379.3% year over year, with an adjusted gross margin of 87%. For Q1 FY2027, Micron forecast revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion.

Kioxia guided its December‑quarter operating profit to 2 trillion yen, only slightly above the 1.99 trillion yen earned in the September quarter and below analyst estimates. The company said the soft outlook was mainly due to shipment timing, with some orders moved to the September quarter and others to the March quarter. CFO Yoshihiko Kawamura said Kioxia expects rapid growth to resume in the March quarter, noting that AI data‑center demand remains robust and that the company has sold out its planned output for next year.

Western Digital shares are at $347.24, down 5% today, a steeper decline than Micron’s and the largest drop among the three stocks. Over the past month, Western Digital has lost 24%. The company sells to hyperscalers, cloud service providers and enterprises building storage for the AI‑driven data economy.

SanDisk shares are at $1,114.65, down 3% today. SanDisk has fallen 36% over the past month, the deepest decline in the group, and slipped in the prior session despite upbeat results reported on October 29.

Micron’s business model differs from its storage peers. It produces dynamic random‑access memory (DRAM) as well as NAND and NOR flash, including high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI systems. Its Strategic Customer Agreements secure long‑term demand visibility, particularly for AI workloads. Western Digital now operates as a hard‑disk‑drive company after separating its flash business into SanDisk, which it still partly owns. SanDisk designs and makes NAND flash and solid‑state drives, producing wafers through its joint venture Flash Ventures with Kioxia.

Micron’s upcoming earnings report will test whether AI memory pricing momentum holds. On the September 30 call, President and Chief Operating Officer Manish Bhatia said Micron does not have “line of sight to when supply and demand balance.” The company also noted that more than 75% of its shipments are committed for the year. Kioxia’s comments on order timing and sold‑out output support that view.

Analysts see a cycle that may be nearing its peak. The average revenue estimate for Micron’s fiscal year ending August 2027 is $275.5 billion. Some analysts, such as Jukan of Citrini Research, interpret recent moves—like Lumentum Holdings’ sale to Marvell Technology—as a sign that management expects the AI cycle to “collapse in two to three years.” A further weak stretch for the memory group could deepen Micron’s monthly losses, while a pricing update matching Kioxia’s upbeat March commentary could ease the pressure.