World
Iran Prepares for Possible Retaliation Amid Rising Tensions with US and Israel
Iran’s armed forces have warned that a new all‑out war with the United States and Israel would be longer and more costly than their adversaries anticipate. The Iranian military says it could deploy new weapons and tactics against the United States, Israel and other countries, marking a potential third major conflict since June last year. The US and Israel’s campaign against Iran, which began on 28 February, may resume after the US midterm elections. President Donald Trump stated that the war with Iran will end “very soon one way or the other” and urged Tehran to agree to a deal or face “the hammer.” Former senior IRGC commander Hossein Kanani Moghaddam told Al Jazeera that, despite extensive blows to Iranian forces earlier this year, they are now in better operational shape than in previous conflicts. He said the target database has expanded, missile range, accuracy and warheads have improved, and drone capabilities have increased. New enemy assets are being identified and operations in additional geographical areas are being planned. He added that previously undisclosed capabilities and targets would be revealed and used if Iran is attacked again. Commanders from Iran’s General Staff of Armed Forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Army reportedly met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to discuss steps to take if attacked again. The response would be immediate and could extend beyond the West Asia region. The IRGC was “100 percent ready” to confront another attack, spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said, describing “maximum deterrence” as a goal Iran would reach soon. Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said commanders would rely on “asymmetric warfare” tactics to compensate for US military superiority. He added that “some weaponry was renovated and new equipment was added along with new tactics” during the brief ceasefire that followed the June memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US. Last month, state television showed an underground drone production line. Authorities also showcased an upgraded version of the Arash attack drone, claiming its warhead had doubled to 100 kg with improved guidance. A Reuters investigation published last week found that numerous military agencies linked with Iran’s defence establishment have evaded sanctions and funneled billions into military imports to replenish the IRGC. Imports between January 2025 and June of this year from China, Russia and Germany to fuel missile and drone production included rocket propellants, explosives, detonators, titanium and heavy‑duty trucks that could be used as launchers. Many Iranian missile defence systems, radars and other equipment were hit during the war. Kanani Moghaddam said remaining and newly developed systems were becoming more accurate, pointing to the targeting of a US‑built F‑35 and other warplanes and drones as successes that can be replicated and expanded upon. “At sea, we have shown that we can easily target supertankers,” he said regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran deems “unauthorised.” He said Iranian attacks on US Navy vessels in September prompted them to stop venturing into the critical waterway. The US has continued its naval blockade on southern Iranian ports, while Iran’s civilian population and infrastructure remain largely exposed if the war resumes. Tehran and other cities across the country lack shelters or early warning systems to protect civilians. Authorities have not reported any progress regarding the promised shelters and gaps in public warning arrangements. Iran’s electricity grid, oil and gas facilities, petrochemical and steel manufacturers and roads and railways could also be attacked again, making life even more difficult amid the economic crisis. During both wars, many senior political and military figures of the Islamic Republic were killed by US and Israeli strikes. The new supreme leader has not been seen or heard from since replacing his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in early March, ostensibly for security reasons. This has led to tighter domestic security controls and prompted some voices from within the establishment to raise concerns and demand accountability for intelligence failures and protection of leadership. “We have been hit and hit hard,” state‑linked analyst Hamzeh Rahim Safavi said during a televised debate on Saturday. “The main cause is intelligence weakness, but no one talks about it or is held accountable.” The analyst is the son of Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former commander‑in‑chief of the IRGC who currently serves as a senior military adviser to the supreme leader. The analyst said calls by hardliners to acquire a nuclear bomb would not repair intelligence and security weaknesses. But Esmaeil Kowsari, a former IRGC division commander now a parliamentary national‑security commission member, told local media last week that even though the supreme leader and others were assassinated, “the enemies did not reach their main goals.” He said the goals were to overthrow the Islamic Republic and fragment Iran. “On the eve of their elections, the Americans are trying to pretend that they have achieved victory by causing a ruckus and launching psychological operations, but that is not the truth,” Kowsari said.