Politics

Independents and Third‑Party Candidates Face Structural Hurdles Ahead of 2026 Midterms

By Hoda Sherif

Nearly half of U.S. voters—about 117 million adults—now identify as politically independent, according to the Pew Research Center’s annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey. That figure is higher than the 29 percent who say they are Democrats and the 28 percent who say they are Republicans. Most self‑described independents, however, still lean toward one of the two major parties; only about 7‑10 percent are “true” independents who express no partisan preference. In the 2026 midterm elections, polling firm Marist reports that 52 percent of likely independent voters back Democrats, 39 percent back Republicans, and a significant share are motivated by opposition to President Donald Trump or a desire for change.

The United States has no legal restriction on the number of parties, yet the winner‑take‑all system for federal and statewide offices and single‑member congressional districts work against candidates outside the Democratic and Republican parties. Even when a minor party gains substantial support, that support is rarely concentrated enough in a single district to win a seat. Voters often avoid “spoiler” candidates who might split the vote between the two major parties.

Political scientist Bernard Tamas of Valdosta State University argues that legal barriers are not the main obstacle for third‑party candidates; instead, the lack of public funding and the absence of campaign‑spending limits give the two major parties a financial advantage. In the 2026 cycle, the Democratic National Committee raised nearly $252.3 million and the Republican National Committee about $341 million. Independent candidates typically raise far less money and are less well known.

Lesley Shedd, a Republican strategist, told Al Jazeera that many voters who say they are independent are actually Republicans or Democrats who disagree with their party on some issues or simply do not want to feel part of Washington’s political culture. Shedd noted that the real challenge for independent candidates is persuading voters to choose them rather than a protest vote.

Efforts to support independent candidates include the Independent Leadership Council, launched in July by former Democrat‑turned‑independent Senator Joe Manchin. The organization has raised more than $10 million to provide donors and campaign resources for independent congressional candidates.

As of now, there is one independent in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate, but none hold a state governor’s office. Independent candidate Rick Bennett is running for governor of Maine, one of only 11 independent or third‑party candidates Simmons expects to surpass the 5 percent vote threshold that often signals electoral viability.

Political scientist AJ Simmons highlights potential impacts in Nebraska and Montana. In Nebraska, independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn, a 51‑year‑old Navy veteran, is considered the most likely alternative to win the seat, especially after the Democratic Party failed to field a replacement nominee. In Montana, independent candidate Seth Bodnar, a former university president and Army veteran, is running against Republican Kurt Alme for the U.S. Senate seat. Bodnar is backed by the Independent Leadership Council, which also supports California Congressman Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party to seek re‑election as an independent. Simmons warns that a three‑way race could split the center‑left and anti‑Republican vote, potentially allowing the Republican candidate to win.

In Idaho and South Dakota, independent candidates are not expected to win, but they may force Republicans to divert resources to contests that were previously considered safe. Simmons notes that the greatest influence of independents historically has been to pressure the major parties to adopt new policies or govern more effectively.

The 2026 midterms will test whether independent and third‑party candidates can overcome structural and financial barriers to become viable contenders across multiple races and election cycles.