Politics

Early Voting Surge Pushes Midterm Turnout Past 43 Million

By Today News Hours Editorial Desk

With less than a week until the U.S. midterm elections, more than 43 million Americans have already voted. University of Florida Election Lab data show that four to five million early votes are being cast each day, a higher rate than in most previous elections. Texas has the highest above‑average turnout so far, according to Professor Mike McDonald, who manages the database. Hispanic communities are also turning out at higher rates than usual.

Overall turnout appears set to exceed 2020 and possibly 2018, which beat the 1914 record for midterm turnout. Texas has already surpassed its 2022 numbers by about 1.75 million voters, with more than 5.8 million ballots cast in the state. Texas is a key battleground that could determine Senate control for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Data from states that require voters to register a political affiliation show an increase in votes cast by Democrats, while Republican early voting numbers remain similar to 2022. Early voting is also up among voters who did not register with a specific party, though the data does not indicate which candidates they chose. Figures released Thursday show that 44 % of early ballots were cast by Democrats, 31.2 % by Republicans, and 24.7 % by voters with no party affiliation. This applies to roughly half of the states that require voter affiliation.

Three states—North Carolina, Georgia and Florida—require voters to submit their race when registering. In these states, votes from Hispanic and black communities have increased, while white voter turnout is on par with 2022 early voting figures. McDonald notes that this aligns with the tendency for communities of color to be part of the Democratic coalition and whites to be part of the Republican coalition.

Texas does not require party affiliation or race, yet data show a surge in voting in some border counties with more than 90 % Hispanic residents. McDonald says many of those counties are expected to exceed their 2022 turnout in the early vote alone.

Early voting has grown in recent years, driven by the COVID‑19 pandemic when more states began offering early voting options, both in‑person and by mail. In 2020, when voters chose both the next president and their lawmakers, more than two‑thirds of all ballots were cast early, half of those by mail. Voters increasingly prefer to vote in person, even when voting early, and are returning ballots earlier than in previous elections. McDonald suggests concerns about postal voting may be a factor, noting that postal votes are more likely to be disqualified due to errors and that some voters may worry about interference in the U.S. Postal Service. Some officials have already confirmed record‑breaking early voting. On Thursday, Minneapolis announced an early voting record for a non‑presidential election. Early voting will soon taper off as states close early voting options in the days leading up to the election on Tuesday, November 3.