Climate & Environment
IMD Forecasts Slightly Warmer November with Below‑Normal Rainfall Across Most of India
By Vishwa Mohan
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday that November is likely to be slightly warmer than usual, with above‑normal maximum and minimum temperatures expected over most parts of the country. The department also projected below‑normal rainfall in most areas, except for some parts of central, northwest and northeast India where normal to above‑normal rainfall is expected. Below‑normal rainfall could be a concern for peninsular India, which normally receives good rain during November from the winter (northeast) monsoon. The forecast of normal to above‑normal rainfall in central and northeast India is significant for Madhya Pradesh, adjoining areas of Maharashtra and Gujarat, east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as it will help the wheat crop in these rain‑fed regions during the month.
Meanwhile, an existing depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal is likely to develop into a cyclonic storm on Sunday and cross the south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts during the Monday evening‑Tuesday morning period, bringing heavy rain to the coastal areas of both states. Once the system develops into a cyclonic storm, it will be called "Murasu", a Tamil word meaning a drum.
"Monthly rainfall for November over south Peninsular India, consisting of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikkal, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema region, Kerala, Mahe and south interior Karnataka, is most likely to be below normal (less than 77% of the long‑period average)," said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra while releasing the monthly outlook for rainfall and temperature for November. The long‑period average of rainfall over south Peninsular India during November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 118.7 mm. In October, rainfall over the country (51.7 mm) was the sixth lowest since 2001 and the 25th lowest since 1901, with a deficit of 31%. Rainfall over south Peninsular India (122.2 mm) was the sixth lowest since 2001.