Politics

Exit Polls Show Likud Largest, but No Majority for Either Side

By Prisha Patnaik

Exit polls from Channels 12, 13 and public broadcaster Kan indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will be the largest in the 120‑member Knesset, but neither the Netanyahu‑led bloc nor the opposition bloc headed by Gadi Eisenkot will secure a majority. Kan projects Likud with 25 seats and Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party with 21, giving the anti‑Netanyahu bloc 53 seats to the Netanyahu‑supported bloc’s 50. Arab‑led parties, which oppose Netanyahu but are not part of the Zionist anti‑Netanyahu coalition, are projected to win 17 seats. Channel 13 gives Likud 25 seats and Yashar 23, again placing the anti‑Netanyahu bloc at 53 and the Netanyahu‑backed bloc at 50, with Arab‑led parties projected to win a record 17 seats. Channel 12 projects Likud 24 seats and Yashar 22, with the Jewish‑led anti‑Netanyahu bloc at 52 seats against 50 for the Netanyahu‑backed parties, and Arab‑led parties expected to secure a record 18 seats. No side is close to the 61 seats needed for a majority, suggesting that coalition talks could extend over the coming days and weeks and that Arab‑led parties may play a role in forming a government, even though they have not previously joined governing coalitions. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot could seek the first opportunity to form a government by appealing to President Isaac Herzog. The results also leave open the possibility that neither side will be able to assemble a coalition, potentially forcing another election. Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister in the interim, echoing the period from 2019 to 2022 when Israel held five rounds of voting. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is projected to finish third, with Kan and Channel 13 giving it 14 seats and Channel 12 projecting 12. Kan’s poll projects the Arab‑led Joint List and the left‑wing Democrats each with 10 seats, while Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu is projected to win eight. Kan projects the far‑right Otzma Yehudit and the Islamist Ra’am parties to win seven seats each. The ultra‑Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, along with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, are each projected to win six seats. All three exit polls project that the non‑aligned Reservists party and the right‑wing People of Israel party will fall short of the 3.25% threshold required to enter the Knesset. The Central Elections Committee has begun counting votes and is expected to release official tallies through the night. Exit‑poll projections may change, and actual results can differ from them.