Sports
Champions League Betting: Raphinha Tipped for Golden Boot as Villarreal Eyed for Wooden Spoon
With the Champions League season underway, betting analysts are steering clear of outright winner bets in favour of value plays in the top goalscorer and league phase markets.
Paris Saint-Germain, managed by Luis Enrique, enter as 5/1 favourites to complete an unprecedented modern-era three-peat after winning the title in 2025 and 2026. Only Real Madrid have achieved three consecutive European Cup wins in the last 45 years. Despite their recent dominance, PSG have struggled domestically, remaining winless in four Ligue 1 matches this season, prompting caution against backing any side outright at this early stage.
Bookmakers currently list PSG, Barcelona, Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid all at 6/1 or shorter, with Manchester City the only other team under 10/1. Manchester City are seen as offering some value following their summer spending and manager Enzo Maresca's cup pedigree, though a difficult league phase schedule could complicate their path. Liverpool (12/1) and Manchester United (20/1) are considered overpriced given defensive concerns and managerial inexperience, while Inter (28/1) and Atletico Madrid (33/1) are viewed as poor bets due to current form.
In the top goalscorer market, Barcelona's Raphinha is highlighted as a strong pick at 20/1. The Brazilian, who shared the Golden Boot two seasons ago with Serhou Guirassy, has adapted to playing through the middle following Barcelona's departures of Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres. He has scored in every La Liga match so far this season, netting six goals in four games at a rate of 1.69 per 90 minutes, with an underlying expected goals figure of 1.52. Raphinha is also Barcelona's designated penalty taker, having already converted one spot-kick this season. His favourable fixture list includes home matches against Manchester City, Aston Villa, Feyenoord, Galatasaray, Como and Sabah FK.
Borussia Dortmund's Serhou Guirassy is tipped at 66/1 to repeat his previous Golden Boot success. He has scored in both of his Bundesliga appearances this season after netting 17 league goals last term and 22 across all competitions. His Champions League record stands at 19 goals in 28 appearances with nine assists. Dortmund's schedule includes home fixtures against AEK Athens, Inter, Real Betis and Villarreal.
Stuttgart forward Deniz Undav is another selection at 150/1. Since joining from Brighton in 2023, Undav scored 25 goals with 14 assists last season and added three goals in four World Cup appearances for Germany, despite limited starts. Stuttgart's schedule features matches against Atletico Madrid, Inter, Club Brugge, Lille, Viking, Galatasaray, PSV and Slovan Bratislava.
PSV Eindhoven's Ricardo Pepi rounds out the goalscorer picks at 150/1. Pepi has three goals in five Eredivisie appearances this season after scoring 19 in 34 games last term despite injury interruptions. PSV were the Eredivisie's top scorers last season with 101 goals, well ahead of second-placed NEC Nijmegen's 77. Pepi's Champions League fixtures include matches against Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Club Brugge, Shakhtar Donetsk, Stuttgart, Porto, RB Leipzig and Viking.
In the league phase market, Villarreal are tipped at 150/1 to finish bottom, a price considered too generous given their struggles. The club has started this La Liga season winless in four matches under new manager Inigo Perez, formerly of Rayo Vallecano, conceding 12 goals. Last season, Villarreal finished second-from-bottom in the Champions League league phase on goal difference alone, winning just one point from eight matches. Their fixture list this season includes challenging away trips to Liverpool, Borussia Dortmund, Fenerbahce and Slavia Prague, alongside home games against PSG, Manchester United, Napoli and Sabah FK.
Odds were correct as of 12:30 BST on 4 September 2026. Bettors are reminded to gamble responsibly, with support available through the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or via begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.