World

Ukraine Advances in Donetsk as Russian Forces Retreat, Casualties Rise

By John T Psaropoulos

Russian troops are withdrawing from many settlements in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region as part of Operation Vivaldi. The Kremlin‑aligned channel Rybar, on Telegram, reported on October 7 that Moscow’s forces were losing villages south of Lyman, a town they have tried to capture as a springboard for an offensive on the “fortress belt” cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian forces have reclaimed 175 square kilometres (67 square miles) of previously occupied land around Lyman. Rybar noted that the enemy’s successes in the Lyman direction are forcing Russian troops to defend previously occupied positions and expend resources on restoring control, rather than launching their own offensive. It added that the possibility of storming Sloviansk is receding into the distant future.

A key battle is developing around the village of Kryva Luka east of Sloviansk, which sits on high ground on the Russian‑held right bank of the Siversky‑Donets River and could serve as a base for counterattacks further east. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters that Operation Vivaldi was successful but incomplete. To reach Kryva Luka, Russian sources acknowledged that Ukraine has recaptured settlements west of it. They blamed the Russian communications strategy of claiming settlements that have not been captured, giving away the plan of attack. Rybar said “premature statements” aided Ukraine, noting that some villages were declared liberated even before Russian units arrived, allowing the enemy to accumulate forces there and launch counterattacks.

Ukraine built up reserves in the Lyman area before launching its counteroffensive, and that preparation appears to be yielding results. The Ministry of Defence said its campaign to disrupt the flow of Russian ammunition and fuel to the front struck a record number of air‑defence assets and targets more than 50 km (30 miles) away in September. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia had captured 1,300 sq km (500 sq miles) of Ukraine in September, echoing claims by his generals. The Institute for the Study of War, which monitors territorial advances using open‑source data, said Russia actually lost 80 sq km (30 sq miles) during that month. The Russian casualty rate rose to a record for 2026 of 46,230 in September, according to Ukraine’s military. Of these, 33,087 – more than 70 percent – were confirmed kills, said Ukraine. The commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi, said enemy casualties were up by 40 percent in the first five days of October, compared with the same period in September. The Ukrainian military on October 7 counted 1,545,950 Russian dead and wounded for the entire full‑scale invasion since 2022.

Putin’s response has been to intensify bombing, causing civilian suffering. Twenty‑two people, five of them children, were killed in the city of Pryluky, in the northern Chernihiv region, when a Russian cruise missile demolished a five‑storey apartment building on October 7, Putin’s birthday. “Today, for Putin’s birthday, the Russian army ‘gifted’ the destruction of a residential building in Pryluky,” said Zelenskyy. Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia unleashed 130 drones and 48 cruise missiles across 12 regions that day, as well as ballistic missiles. At least two more people died in Kyiv and two in Oleksandria. At least 30 people died in Kramatorsk on October 8, when a Russian bomb struck two city buses. Video of the emergency response showed bodies strewn across an avenue and in a park.

Recent analysis of the Geran‑4 and Geran‑5 jet‑powered drones that Russia increasingly uses for many of its attacks makes it unlikely that these attacks on non‑military targets are accidental. Ukraine’s military intelligence said the attacks use satellite and sophisticated inertial navigation systems, as well as a camera that reads landmark features and checks them against an on‑board database – all three systems working in concert to ensure accurate navigation. Ukraine has responded to the jet‑powered drones by speeding up delivery of F‑16 fighters from its allies, which are proving an effective first line of defence. “Currently, F‑16s are destroying between 50 percent and 60 percent of the drone attacks,” said Zelenskyy. Ukraine is also testing five new types of interceptor drones, the most successful of which is 30 percent effective, and experimenting with small‑scale missiles, Zelenskyy said. A dozen AI‑driven heavy machine‑gun turrets have been placed around Kyiv as a last line of defence, with dozens more planned around the country. These are a “facility‑level” defence, said Serhiy Beskrestnov, a senior Defence Ministry adviser. “It can protect a warehouse, factory, bridge, or power substation.”

Russia has begun hitting bridges across the Dnipro River, striking Kyiv’s southern and northern bridges seven times in the first four days of October. It has previously struck the building where Ukraine’s cabinet met, as well as energy facilities feeding the city, in an effort to cause a blackout. Russia’s jet‑powered drones travel at more than 500 km (310 miles) per hour and are more difficult to intercept than its propeller‑driven Shahed drones. Despite this, during the October 7 strike, Ukraine’s Air Force said it intercepted 80 percent of the jet‑powered drones, 95 percent of the propeller‑driven drones and 80 percent of cruise missiles.

On October 7, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv to announce a 1.3‑billion‑euro ($1.46 bn) military aid package, and to sign agreements worth 8.5 billion euros ($9.5 bn) to jointly develop drone defences and other weapons with Ukraine. Merz’s visit was an important political gesture following recent elections in two German states where the pro‑Russian AfD trounced his governing CDU party.

Ukraine continued long‑range strikes inside Russia. These struck refineries in Volgograd on October 2 and Bashkortostan on October 8, as part of a strategy to starve the Russian economy and military of fuel. “Over 51 percent of the enemy’s oil refining capacity has been disabled,” said Ukraine’s military. Ukraine also hit the Samara linear production and dispatch station, which its General Staff described as a major hub for receiving, storing, and blending oil. The staff said eleven 20,000‑tonne storage tanks and three 50,000‑tonne storage tanks had been destroyed. The facility blends high‑ and low‑sulfur oil from various fields to produce the export grade of oil known as Urals, which accounts for up to 50 percent of the total volume of Russian oil exports, the military said. Ukraine also struck military targets. On October 7, it struck the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant, which extracts gaseous sulphur for use in explosives. On October 4, it destroyed a Sukhoi Su‑35 multi‑role fighter and a Sukhoi Su‑34 fighter‑bomber on the Adygea airfield, and also hit the Seshcha airfield in Bryansk. Its campaign of mid‑range strikes to destroy Russian power supply in occupied areas had reached 456 between July 6 and October 3.