Sports
Opta Model Forecasts Bayern and Arsenal as Champions League Favorites Following 2026-27 Draw
The fixtures for the 2026-27 Champions League league phase have been finalized following August's draw, setting up a series of high-profile matchups among the 36 competing clubs. Since UEFA's expanded tournament format was introduced two seasons ago, the league phase has produced numerous marquee encounters between Europe's top clubs, replacing the previous group stage system. Although no exact fixture pairing can occur for a third consecutive season, this year's draw still produced several standout matches.
Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain will face Barcelona and Manchester City, while last season's runners-up Arsenal have been drawn against Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. Manchester United, returning to the competition, will play Bayern Munich and Atlético Madrid. Real Madrid will host Inter Milan, who will also face Liverpool.
Using these fixtures, the Opta supercomputer has projected how the league phase table and eventual title race might unfold.
Projected League Phase Table: Top Eight
Teams finishing in the top eight of the league phase will automatically qualify for the round of 16. According to the projections, semifinalists Bayern Munich are expected to top the table with 16.56 points, a lower total than the 21 points they earned last season when they finished second. Arsenal, who won all eight of their league phase matches last season, are projected for 16.33 points in second place.
Manchester City and Liverpool are forecast to finish third and fourth, respectively, despite both clubs operating under new management this season. Barcelona are predicted for fifth place, potentially affected by a difficult fixture list, while Real Madrid are projected for sixth, an improvement after missing the top eight last season.
PSG, despite winning the last two titles, are projected for seventh place following a slow start to the season and an 11th-place finish in last season's league phase. Inter Milan are the only Italian club projected to qualify automatically for the round of 16, rounding out the top eight.
Knockout Phase Playoffs
Clubs finishing between ninth and 24th will enter knockout phase playoffs for a chance to reach the round of 16. Manchester United, playing in their first league phase under the new format, are projected to finish ninth. Aston Villa, the reigning Europa League champions, are projected for 10th place.
Borussia Dortmund and Stuttgart are projected for 11th and 12th place, respectively. Roma, playing in the Champions League for the first time since 2018-19, and Portuguese sides Sporting CP and Porto are also expected to compete in the playoff round without reaching the automatic qualification places.
Como are projected as the only one of this season's four debutant clubs to reach the knockout phase. Napoli, despite an early exit last season, are also expected to advance to the playoffs. Atlético Madrid are projected for 22nd place, behind PSV Eindhoven, Bodø/Glimt, RB Leipzig, Club Brugge and Fenerbahçe, partly due to a challenging fixture list that includes matches against Bayern, Liverpool and Manchester United. Lens, who missed out on the competition last season, are projected to finish 24th and qualify for the playoff round.
Bottom 12
Clubs finishing from 25th to 36th will be eliminated automatically. Azerbaijani debutants Sabah are projected to finish last, with a difficult schedule that includes matches against Arsenal, Barcelona, Manchester United, Dortmund, Napoli and Villarreal.
Slovan Bratislava, managed by Yaya Touré, are projected for 35th place. Shakhtar Donetsk and Feyenoord are projected to finish just one point ahead of Slovan Bratislava. Debutants Viking and LASK face difficult schedules and are unlikely to reach the top 24, according to the projections. Slavia Prague and AEK Athens, the latter playing in the competition for the first time since 2018-19, are also projected to finish in the lower half of the table.
Galatasaray, who reached the round of 16 last season, are projected for 28th place but could still reach the knockout phase. Real Betis, playing in the Champions League for the first time since 2005-06, are projected just above Galatasaray. Villarreal, who finished 35th last season, are expected to improve this year, while Lille are also projected to have a chance at reaching the knockout phase.
Projected Champions League Winner
According to the supercomputer's projections, Bayern Munich and Arsenal are the only two clubs given more than a 20% chance of winning the title. Arsenal are seeking their first-ever Champions League title after losing last season's final on penalties.
Manchester City, under new manager Enzo Maresca, are given a 12.78% chance of winning a second title following a significant squad rebuild over the summer. PSG are considered to have a real chance at a third consecutive title, though they are rated behind Barcelona, who have not won the competition since 2014-15 despite a disappointing quarterfinal exit last season.
Liverpool, under new manager Andoni Iraola, are given a 5.8% chance of winning what would be their seventh Champions League title. This figure is higher than the 4.33% chance given to record champions Real Madrid, now managed by José Mourinho. Manchester United and Inter Milan are projected closely behind Real Madrid, while Aston Villa are ranked as the 10th most likely winners.