Sports
Experts and Stats Weigh In as Champions League Race Begins
By BBC Sport
The 2025-26 Champions League campaign kicks off on Tuesday, with the final set for Madrid on 5 June next year. Paris St-Germain are seeking an unprecedented third consecutive title, while five English clubs, led by favourites Arsenal, aim to prevent that outcome after finishing as runners-up last season.
Football analysts Julien Laurens and Guillem Balague shared their predictions for this year's competition. Laurens believes PSG's bid for a three-peat is unlikely, calling it "impossible" without a player of Cristiano Ronaldo's caliber. He predicts PSG will reach the semi-finals, with Bayern Munich and Arsenal advancing to the final. Laurens tips Arsenal to win the trophy, citing their strong defensive record as key to lifting the title.
Balague expects PSG, despite an uneven start under manager Luis Enrique, to again come close to winning it all. He also highlighted Barcelona's strong form under Hansi Flick and Arsenal's growing consistency as reasons to expect all three sides in the semi-finals, alongside a fourth contender from Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, or Manchester City.
Both pundits identified players to watch this season. Laurens pointed to Real Madrid's Jude Bellingham, who is expected to thrive under Jose Mourinho in a number 10 role following a strong World Cup. He also praised Como's Nico Paz, PSG winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia—whom he tipped for Ballon d'Or contention—Lens defender Ismaelo Ganiou, and Roma striker Donyell Malen, who has impressed since joining from Aston Villa.
Balague highlighted Bayern Munich's Harry Kane, calling him a serious Ballon d'Or contender, along with Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal, PSG's Kvaratskhelia, Shakhtar Donetsk's Kaua Elias, and Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard, who has started the season strongly after an injury-hit campaign.
Statistical projections from Opta place Arsenal as overall favourites to win the tournament with a 20.4% probability, narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich at 20%. PSG's chances of a third straight title stand at 7.3%, ranking fourth overall, while 2023 champions Manchester City sit third with a 12.7% chance. All five Premier League clubs rank in the top 10 for title probability and have been given more than a 50% chance of reaching the last 16.
In terms of fixture difficulty, Liverpool have been handed the easiest league-phase draw among English sides, while Stuttgart face the easiest overall schedule and Inter Milan the most favorable route among pot-one teams. Arsenal, despite drawing Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, also picked the two lowest-ranked teams in the competition—Sabah and Slovan Bratislava. Manchester City face the toughest challenge among English clubs, drawing Barcelona and PSG from pot one, as well as Napoli, ranked 24th, from pot three.
Last season, Arsenal topped the league phase despite one of the easier draws, while Bayern Munich finished second despite facing the toughest opposition in the competition.
Balague also assessed the four teams making their Champions League debut this season. He praised Cesc Fabregas's work at Como, predicting the club could reach the knockout stages. Austrian side LASK, who eliminated Celtic in qualifying, could earn respectable results but are unlikely to progress further. Azerbaijani club Sabah, despite tough fixtures against Arsenal, Manchester United, Barcelona, and Borussia Dortmund, may pull off occasional surprises. Norwegian outfit Viking, drawn against Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Napoli, and Aston Villa, could also have a chance of reaching the knockout rounds given the strength of Norwegian coaching and player development.
BBC will broadcast highlights of every Champions League match this season. Coverage begins at 22:00 BST on Wednesdays via BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app, with a dedicated Champions League Match of the Day airing on BBC One at 22:40. This week, an additional highlights program will air on BBC Two on Thursday at 22:30, following Thursday's fixtures.