World

Sahel Region Faces Record Extremist Violence as Al-Qaida and IS-Linked Groups Expand

By Jason Burke

Islamist extremist violence in Africa's Sahel region is projected to reach unprecedented levels this year, driven by offensives from groups associated with al-Qaida and Islamic State. Data compiled by Acled (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) highlights the continued expansion of al-Qaida in parts of Africa, contrasting with its diminished presence elsewhere, as the US observes the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The statistics focus on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, a strategically important and contested area. Incidents of violence involving jihadist groups in these three countries have escalated from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. So far this year, 2,145 events have been recorded, suggesting an annual total exceeding 3,000 if current trends persist.

While global terrorism deaths have reached their lowest point since 2008, fatalities in the Sahel have sharply increased. The 2026 Global Peace Index report noted that "Terrorism has become more geographically concentrated: the Sahel continued to record some of the world’s highest terrorism death tolls, with the UN recording more than 9,000 deaths from security incidents across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 2025."

In April, a joint offensive in Mali by the al-Qaida-linked Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-dominated Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) targeted strategic towns, government forces, and Russian auxiliaries. This offensive involved ambushes, car bombs, drones, and raids, resulting in significant casualties. Mali’s defense minister died in a suicide attack at his residence in Kati, nine miles northwest of Bamako, and the head of military intelligence was killed. Attacks also struck Mali’s international airport, and rebels seized control of Kidal, a former FLA stronghold, after soldiers fled and Russian mercenaries surrendered. This defeat reversed a symbolic victory achieved by the Malian junta three years prior. JNIM has since expanded its control in Mali, killing more soldiers and Russian mercenaries, and extending operations into neighboring countries. This violence often includes clashes with rival groups, as well as killings by government armed forces and Russian mercenaries.

In Burkina Faso, JNIM claimed over 130 attacks in 2026, with some occurring closer to the capital, Ouagadougou. In Niger, JNIM claimed at least 17 attacks, though it was less active than its rival, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, according to a recent UN report based on member state intelligence. Ulf Laessing, a senior analyst at the Konrad Adenauer foundation in Berlin, stated that JNIM has distanced itself from al-Qaida’s historical objective of attacking the US and its allies. Laessing added, "In the Sahel, Islamic State and al-Qaida now command big areas but these are very localised groups. Not a single attack in Europe or the US has been planned in the Sahel."

Al-Shabaab, another al-Qaida-linked group, has long dominated rural areas of Somalia. Peter Bofin, Acled’s senior analyst for south-east Africa, reported, "In east Africa, al-Shabaab remains one of the continent’s deadliest groups, with Acled recording more than 10,000 reported deaths in al-Shabaab-related violence over the past 18 months." He also noted, "Despite some degradation of its extortion in Mogadishu, its revenue streams stretch across the country, and the region." Loosely linked IS militant groups are active in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Chad, and Nigeria, where they were targeted by US airstrikes last year.

Al-Qaida’s propaganda has welcomed its expansion in sub-Saharan Africa, though experts note the continent was not a primary focus in the group's strategic planning until recently. Laessing commented, "Twenty-five years ago it was all about Afghanistan and then Iraq … Africa wasn’t really of interest then. Now its the main area of operations." Factors such as sectarian and ethnic conflict, resource competition, poor governance, and instability contribute to Africa being a fertile ground for militant recruitment. However, territory in Mali and Somalia has limitations as a base for global campaigns or long-range terrorist attacks.

Following the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaida affiliates posed a significant threat across the Middle East, inspiring and directing lethal attacks in Europe. However, the recent UN report described al-Qaida's senior leadership as "marginalised" and its capability for external operations as "unclear." There has been no formal declaration of a successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri, killed by the US in Kabul in 2022. Saif al-Adel, believed to be in Iran since 2002, is considered the de facto leader but has not made public statements. Other leaders are thought to be in Afghanistan, where the group has rebuilt limited infrastructure, according to Western intelligence services.

Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), based in Yemen, is described by the UN report as "the vanguard of the global al-Qaida movement" and one of the few affiliates committed to continuing al-Qaida’s campaign against the US. In May, AQAP released a video urging Muslims in Europe and the US to conduct local attacks. Despite maintaining an estimated 2,000 fighters, primarily in the mountains between Abyan and Shabwa, AQAP's activity decreased by approximately 70%, from 63 events in the first seven months of 2025 to 19 during the same period in 2026, according to Acled. Analysts contrast the tens of thousands of militants currently mobilized by groups like JNIM and al-Shabaab with al-Qaida's more limited manpower before 9/11, and emphasize the differing intentions and capabilities of the group then and now.